Analyzing Carey Price's Cold Start

 

Carey Price has had a rough start to the 2021 NHL season. He has started twelve NHL games for the Montreal Canadiens and has a record of 5-4-3 and a combined goals-against of thirty-eight. 

MONTREAL OFF-SEASON

Marc Bergevin and the Montreal Canadiens had a huge off-season in terms of additions. The Canadiens added a scoring winger in Tyler Toffoli, a two-way defenceman in Joel Edmundson and a backup for Carey Price in Jake Allen. The Canadiens also traded for power forward winger in Josh Anderson. They also signed veterans Corey Perry and Micheal Frolik. 

These moves strengthened the Canadiens offensive firepower. However, the addition of Joel Edmundson has not been as good as Bergevin and the Canadiens were hoping. 

Edmundson has been at his best defensively. You also have to take into account that he's played twenty games for the Canadiens. 

The other moves the Habs made were not expected to affect the Canadiens defensive play. Surprisingly, Jake Allen has broken out as the Montreal Canadiens starter or at the very least the guy who deserved to be the starter. 

THE CANADIENS PLAY

The Habs have played a very offensive game this season. The Habs' main defensively responsible forwards have been off. Phillip Danault, The Habs great two-way centre seems to be more of an only defensive centre so far this season. He hasn't had a goal through twenty games and has had eight assists. 

The Habs defence has in general played well in their end. Brett Kulak through sixteen games has an xGA/60 (Expected Goals Against Per 60) of 1.58. That number leads the Habs defenseman. He's also second in the league for xGA/60.

Shea Weber and Ben Chiarot have also played very well in their end. The Habs top pair has a 1.95 xGA/60 when on the ice together which, is one of the better defence pairs in the league. 

The Habs have a defenseman who is Norris calibre and that defenseman is Jeff Petry. 

The Habs forward core has also played very well offensively. Suzuki, Anderson and Drouin have clicked this season. Tatar and Gallagher have played great. Danault has been off but, I would expect him to bounce back from his bad start. 

THE BASE NUMBERS 

Carey Price has played twelve games and has only won five of those games. He has a save percentage of 88.8%. Carey Price has never had an NHL season with a save percentage below .900. He might be in the decline or just in a cold streak. 

The next base stat to look at is GAA (Goals Against Average). Carey Price has a goals-against-average of 3.13. Which again is the worst of his career.

THE ANALYTICS 

 There is one analytics stat that you should take into account for goalies and that stat is Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). GSAx is the stat that takes into account expected goals minus the actual goals against. 

Carey Price on a three-year trend has a GSAx of... 18-19: 4.46 GSAx, 19-20: -11.04 GSAx and  20-21: -8.81 GSAx.

Looking at these statistics you can see that Carey Price dropped off in the 19-20 season. In the playoffs that season however he had a GSAx of 7.92. Carey Price is a goalie that tends to succeed more in the playoffs. 

THE VERDICT

Carey Price has been great in the playoffs in the past and has taken a step back this season. When the addition of Jake Allen occurred, many people thought that this would bring out the best of Carey Price. In theory, it should have. Carey Price would have gotten a lot of rest. This has not come to fruition. Price will most likely continue on this trend at least for this season and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Habs want him to waive his No Move Clause (NMC) with the upcoming Seattle Expansion Draft. 

By: Brody Neufeld