2020 Carolina Hurricanes Offseason Outlook
Calling all Caniacs! If you’re looking for Carolina Hurricanes content, you’ve come to the right place! In this article I’ll be breaking down the current state of the Hurricanes and what their approach to the offseason could look like.
When reflecting on the last 2 seasons they had, it’s hard not to consider the word progress to define the Carolina Hurricanes. From enduring years of failure, mediocrity, and lumbering at the bottom of the NHL’s barrel, there’s finally a team to be optimistic about for Hurricanes fans. Back-to-back playoff berths, an Eastern Conference Final playoff run, and a whole lot of storm surges in the process, the on-ice product is finally a fun one. And yes, they were bounced in what technically is considered the first round of this year’s unique Stanley Cup Playoffs, but it’s important to understand that anything can happen in a 5-game series in a league oriented around parity. Fortunate bounces. Missed penalties. Hot goalies. Sputtering and scorching players. That’s the nature of the beast. Winners love it and losers hate it.
And let’s not forget who they played. The Bruins were the best team in the league this season, and it wasn’t particularly close. They just came off of a berth in the Stanley Cup Final a season prior, along with copious years of deep playoff runs associated with their team and current core. I truly do hate using cliches, but unfortunately because of the Bruins, I have to, because it’s so outrageously true. In short, they know what it takes to win, and they showed it. It also didn’t help that the Canes’ second leading goal-scorer, Andrei Svechnikov, went down early in the series with a lower body injury, and the team struggled thereafter. Regardless, it’s important to take positives from this postseason. They absolutely dominated the New York Rangers in the play-in round, taking care of them in short order. And just because they had less playoff success this season, it doesn’t mean they failed to show improvement. In this league, progress isn’t exactly linear. It helps to develop battle scars. I truly believe it will help make this team better, as it did for Stanley Cup Champions of years prior. Alright, enough of the incredibly long introduction. Without further ado, let’s dive right in.
Salary Cap
Due to the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the NHL, the salary cap will remain stagnant at $81.5 million for the foreseeable future, leaving less room for teams to upgrade and spend on free agents/RFAs, meaning they will have to be much more creative in how they structure their rosters. In recent years, the Hurricanes have gone from a floor team to a cap team, in which this year, according to Puckpedia, they had a hit of $82.437 million, roughly $937,000 over the cap limit (which they were able to circumvent due to LTIR). Fortunately, the Canes will have a multitude of contracts coming off the books, resulting in an updated cap hit $72.35 million, leaving roughly $9.149 million in cap space for them to upgrade.
Off the Books
Carolina will have a total of 17 contracts coming off of their books, being at both the NHL and minor league level. At the minor league level, 11 players will need re-signing, with 3 of them entering unrestricted free agency, and 8 becoming restricted, fully under the team’s control:
Little of these contract negotiations will be of high financial significance to the cap hit, yet in a salary cap world (whose cap won’t be changing anytime soon) it’s critical to note that every dollar that is allocated carries its own importance. I suspect that most of the RFAs will be extended either a qualifying offer or an AHL contract soon after. For those that are given NHL contracts, I imagine their AAV won’t exceed the league minimum of $750,000, and if it does, it certainly won’t be by much. As for the UFAs, they provide nothing more than organizational depth, and I would not be surprised if they move on from them and find better value options at league minimum in this year’s free agency.
Now moving on to the big boys. There are 6 players of NHL significance that will come off the books this offseason, in which 4 of them are UFAs and 2 become RFAs:
Let’s start with the RFAs, most notably Haydn Fleury. The Canes are loaded on the left side, having Slavin, Skjei, and Gardiner all being left shots and are higher than him on the depth chart. However, he’s shown he can play on the right side, playing significant minutes while having an impact at that position in this year’s playoffs. Fleury established himself as a full-time player this season, playing 45 games this season, averaging 13:40 in ice time and scoring a career high in goals (4), assists (10), and points (14), while controlling 54% of possession at even strength. In his 8 playoff games, Fleury managed to pot 2 goals. In the short-term, Fleury can provide positive value in a third pair role on their right and left side next season. Long-term, it looks as though he’s the odd man out when it comes to the Seattle Expansion Draft, though that is months away and a lot can change in that time. Do they move him now and recoup value where they can, or do they use him next season and risk losing him for nothing? Time will tell, but depending on if they’d want to make an upgrade at forward via trade, I think he would be a valuable chip. Fleury is eligible for arbitration this offseason, meaning that if he does not like the contract offers he is receiving from management, he can opt for a third party arbitrator from the league to determine how much he is worth. Therefore, he has more leverage this time around. According to Evolving Hockey, on a 2-year bridge deal, Fleury’s expected cap hit is $1,272,000, though with his arbitration leverage I suspect the AAV will be higher by a few hundred thousand. A market comparable to keep an eye on will be Travis Dermott of the Toronto Maple Leafs. As they have fairly similar stat lines and play a similar role, I believe that they will fall within the same price point. I think it’s safe to assume whoever gets their deal done first, it will likely be a talking point in negotiations for the other. We’ll see how it shakes out as time goes on.
RAPM Table of Haydn Fleury via Evolving-Hockey.
Moving on to RFA number 2, Warren Foegele. Foegele had his coming out party this season, doubling his point totals from last season in less games with 13 goals and 17 assists for 30 points in 68 contests, while controlling 53.7% of possession at 5 on 5, in roughly 13:43 of ice time per night. What’s even more impressive about is regular season stat line is that 27 of his 30 points came at even strength, meaning he spent little to no time on the power play. Foegele showed great acumen in his two way-play, playing a significant role on the team’s penalty kill, where it was apparent that he was a force to be reckoned with.
This chart displays the effectiveness of Carolina’s PK with Foegele on the ice, via hockeyviz.com
His Playoff performance, however, was not one for the books. In 8 postseason games, he was only able to muster up 1 goal, though controlled 50.3% of possession at even strength. The fact of the matter is that 8 games is too small a sample size to make of anything, and when looking at the big picture, his season as a whole showed great improvement and development in his overall game. He’s shown he can be a versatile player in the top 9 who is able to play up and down the lineup when needed, as well as contribute on the penalty kill. As well as this, I don’t think it’s a stretch to see him get some reps on the power play as well next season, making him all that more useful, and a genuine “plug-and-play” guy all teams desire. At only 24 years old, I truly believe that he’s got more room to grow, and if all falls into place, he has the potential to be a 40 point middle-six player who can play all-situations. With the Canes’ cap structure the way it is, it’s critical to get a player like him locked in for a reasonable AAV, though Foegele’s arbitration rights make it all the more difficult to do so. At 24, the team would likely either want a 2 year bridge deal to maintain RFA status after the deal to have some form of control over the player, or extend him long-term to buy multiple UFA years. Using the same model, Evolving-Hockey projects Foegele’s cap hit to be $2,149,000 on a 2-year bridge, or $3,764,000 on a 5-year deal, buying 2 years of UFA status in the process. It will be interesting to see what the player’s desired approach to the deal is, and what that final number may be. It’s important to keep in mind multiple things while considering this contract: Svechnikov’s ELC expires next season, and will likely command a high AAV, in which having more salary wiggle room to work with all the more important. As well as this, Carolina would likely want to upgrade via free agency or trade this offseason, therefore they’ll need the cap space to do so. Because of these reasons I suspect Foegele’s deal to be in the shape of the former rather than the latter in order to make their offseason plans work.
RAPM Table of Warren Foegele via Evolving-Hockey.
Now comes the more difficult ones, the UFAs. To be quite honest, I think the most likely scenario is that none return. Let’s start with Justin Williams. I love what he brings to the team, and especially at league minimum. You don’t really ask him to provide the points so much as the locker room presence, but he does it anyway. He’s such a player, and I admire him dearly. But the reality is he’s 38 years old. How much more can his body take until he’s out of gas? I don’t think anyone knows what Justin Williams wants to do except for Justin Williams. If he wants to keep playing, there will be a spot for him, no questions asked. But the onus remains on him. If I’m a betting man I’d say he calls it a career, and what a career it has been for Mister Game 7.
Next on the list is Joel Edmundson. Edmondson came over in the deal that sent Justin Faulk to the Blues earlier in the season, providing as a defensive stalwart while also, like Williams, being a veteran presence who was a leader in the room. He played mostly third pair minutes while also providing the ability to penalty kill. However, the eye test may not have matched what he actually brought to the table, as his underlying numbers were quite poor. He boasted a measly 45% in even strength possession, while his actual and expected Goals For and Against/60 were all in negative value, essentially classifyinghim as a liability when on the ice. He will most definitely be commanding a raise on his $3,100,000 cap hit, and with the slew of left shot defenders the Canes have, it’s hard to imagine Edmondson back in a Hurricanes uniform next season.
Sami Vatanen was acquired at the trade deadline from the New Jersey Devils because of the fact that Dougie Hamilton was out injured. Due to the pandemic, Vatanen played no games for the Hurricanes in the regular season, but in 7 playoff games, he managed 3 assists. As a 29 year old right shot defender, Vatanenwill try hard to cash in this offseason, likely pricing himself out of the Hurricanes’ plans. Evolving-Hockey projects his AAV to be anywhere between $5,350,000 and $5,400,000 on 5 and 7 year deals, and due to the positional need league wide, I can envision a likely scenario where he gets more than that.
Last but not least, we have Trevor van Riemsdyk. Van Riemsdyk has played for the Hurricanes the last 3 seasons, playing mostly a depth role in the process. This season, however, he’s been in and out of the lineup, bouncing between the 6th and 7th Defenceman, playing only 49 regular season games and just 2 in the postseason. While not as adept offensively, van Riemsdyk provided value on the other side of the puck, having positive defensive metrics as well as controlling 52% of even strength possession when on the ice. For the right price, I would bring back van Riemsdyk again on a short-term deal for under $1,000,000 to play in the same role. However, I suspect another team will pay him more than he’s worth, likely resulting in him walking in free agency.
The Forwards
There’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the offense on this team. The Canes ranked 9th in goals for (3.26) in the league, having an assortment of offensive weapons in their core of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Teuvo Teräväinen. They also have some nice complimentary pieces around them in Neiderreter, Dzingel, Necas, and Foegele, among others. While the offensive production wasn’t there with him in his brief stint with the team, the trade for Vincent Trocheck was an all-around win, allowing them to now have deep options at center who can contribute consistently. I am confident the offense will come once Trocheck acquaints himself with Brind’Amour’s systems after a long stretch in Florida. In terms of forwards, the key for Carolina is to acquire some more secondary scoring options and improve their depth. It’s never a good thing when you’re relying on Jordan Martinook, a *checks notes*, 2 goal scorer during the regular season to put the puck in the net in the postseason after your second leading goal scorer on the team goes down with injury. There will be many options in free agency and via trade for a bargain (which I will write about), so I think management will find creative yet smart ways to improve their depth scoring this offseason.
The Defence
It’s pretty good, if you were wondering. Going into the 2020-21 season, the Canes will have a total 7 defenceman to work with that are, at the very least, of top 4 calibre: JaccobSlavin, Jake Gardiner, Brett Pesce, Dougie Hamilton, Brady Skjei, Haydn Fleury, and Jake Bean. Woof. That’s a top-end D-core, no question. Unless you’re moving one for some flexibility (which I would say is unlikely, but Gardiner’s name has floated out there in the past), I don’t see any indication or willingness to upgrade on the back end. Losing van Riemsdyk, Vatanen, and Edmundson certainly hurts their depth, but that’s the unfortunate nature of the hard cap world. Their departures will allow Carolina to upgrade at both forward and goaltending, being areas in need of most improvement.
The Goaltending
The Hurricanes employed a tandem of Petr Mrazek and James Reimer this season. While fairly cost efficient at $6,525,000, they didn’t exactly “wow” you at all at any point. This season, Mrazek ranked 39th in save percentage at a measly 0.905, while Reimer finished 21st with a 0.914, while posting 3.32 and -6.17 goals saved above average (GSAA) respectively, helping emphasize the fact that the two just aren’t providing much other than “average” to “below average” goaltending. While both posted solid numbers in the playoffs, neither of the two were the better goalie in the series versus Jaroslav Halak, Boston’s backup. The reality is that these two goaltenders being “just fine” at times isn’t going to cut it, and that they’re not going to be guys that can steal you games in the playoffs. It’s just not going to happen. In the postseason, where games are so tightly contested, you need your goalie to be better than the one at the other end of the rink, and are you confident either guy is ever going to be the best one in a series? I’d say unlikely. And I doubt either gets any better than they are right now, as Mrazek is 28 and Riemer is 32. What you are seeing is what you are getting. Help from within is not coming anytime soon either. Alex Nedeljkovic, the 24 year old netminder for the Charlotte Checkers, took a step back this year, posting a 0.906 save percentage in 29 AHL games. His 4 game audition was not memorable either, as he posted a 0.887 in that timeframe while the regular starters were out with injury. In short, he’s not ready just yet. Though both Mrazek and Riemer have 1 more year remaining on their contracts, I think it’s necessary for Waddell to search for an upgrade in goal. I’ll get to it in a future article, but there are multiple options via free agency as well as the trade route. Due to the financial climate and the sheer amount of goalies on the market, the Canes may have a unique opportunity to obtain a starting/1A goaltender for a below market price.
Overall, like all teams, Waddell and co. will have their work cut out for them this one-of-a-kind offseason. It will be truly fascinating to see how the dominoes fall in free agency, and how the market is set by certain players. The Hurricanes are a very forward thinking organization, and I believe that it will be on full display in how they approach their free agent signings and trades. So buckle up, Canes fans, it’s going to be interesting.
Written By: Adrian Costanzo
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