The Minnesota Wild Pre-Training Camp Preview

With NHL training camps set to begin on the 10th of July we thought we’d take a look at Minnesota’s 2019/20 season in depth and what the post-season could hold for the State Of Hockey. The Minnesota Wild were 35-27-7 (.558 points percentage) in the regular season , enough to rack up 77 points which left them struggling in 21st place in regular season standings. Under normal circumstances they would have been out of the playoffs for the second season in a row, due to these unprecedented times they will enter the Play-in series as the 10th seed in the west and will face the 7th seed Vancouver, giving them an opportunity to make the playoffs for the seventh time in the last eight years. They appeared to be on a role before the NHL season was paused on the 12th of March having a 15-7-1 record in their last 23 games and will look to carry this momentum into the Play-off qualifiers.  

Play-in Series

Commissioner Gary Bettman previously announced the conclusion of the 2019/20 regular season due to Covid-19 resulting in the cancellation of the remaining 189 NHL games which were due to be held between the 12th of March and the 4th of April. With the recent rise in confirmed cases among players and staff the fate of these Play-in series is still up in the air, should they go ahead as scheduled the Wild will face off against the Vancouver Canucks who finished 18th in the standings with 78 points, one more than the Wild. 

The Wild played the Canucks three times this past season :

(Jan 12th) Min 1-4 Van (H)

(Feb 6th) Min 4-2 Van (A)

(Feb 19th) Min 4-3 Van (S/O) (A)

While many have written off the Wild heading into this play-in series , it may be closer than some think. Minnesota’s best opportunity to win is to exploit the cracks in Vancouver’s system. One of which being their lack of secondary scoring. Outside of their four offensive powerhouses only three other forwards managed to crack the 20 point threshold for the season (Pearson,Virtanen,Gaudette). This weakness is highlighted by the fact that a total of 11 Minnesota forwards finished with 20+ points on the year (12 including Jason Zucker who was traded to the Penguins). Their depth scoring issues are extremely apparent when you look at goals scored per hour during a 5 on 5. We’ll use Pettersson as an example, with Elias Pettersson was on the ice the Canucks average 3.95 goals per hour (for context, the Tampa Bay Lightning led the league with 2.94 goals per hour). Without Pettersson they struggled with an average of 2.05 goals per hour, worse than all but two teams. It's safe to say the Canucks struggled on the blueline this year. The addition of Rookie Quinn Hughes surely softened the blow, as well as Edler’s impressive offensive showing and Stecher looking at home on the 3rd pairing. Chris Tanev struggled to recuperate form of far-removed times and had arguably the worst season of his NHL career, he struggled to keep up with the leagues quick nature and failed to cement himself as the Canucks rock at the back. Tyler Myers and Jordie Benn’s performances were also miles below par. Their defensive structure lacked chemistry, pairing partners looked more like opponents, rarely getting on the same page. Out of their nine defensive pairings that logged 100 or more 5 on 5 minutes, only one controlled 50% of the expected goals (Hughes + Myers). The Canucks ultimately surrendered 2.55 expected goals per hour, good enough for 25th in the NHL while the Wild’s strong defensive core had them all the way in 2nd. While the Wild will have to be wary of Vancouver’s strong powerplay unit, they will certainly look to take advantage of their lacklustre penalty killing units. Vancouver gave up 7.39 expected goals per hour when shorthanded, 26th in the NHL. Out of the seven Canucks to play 100-plus shorthanded minutes, the only glimpses of hope for the Canucks were Benn’s and Schaller’s above average defensive showings during the one man disadvantage scenarios. The Canucks were fortunate enough to get rock solid goaltending on the penalty kill. Vancouver’s .876 save percentage when shorthanded was good enough to sneak into the NHL’s top 10.

Key Players

Forward Kevin Fiala was one of the league's hottest players before the season was paused, scoring 26 points (14 goals, 12 assists) in his final 18 games, a stretch that included 10 multipoint games. But if the Wild are to advance to the playoffs, they'll likely need scoring depth behind Fiala (23 goals), Zach Parise (25) and Eric Staal (19), the only Minnesota players to score more than 15 goals. The Wild will have a tough time trying to beat Jacob Markstrom and will need their volume shooters to utilise their strengths to their best ability. Despite having the worst statistical year of his career, Alex Galchenyuk who was acquired from the Penguins on the 10th of February, finished the year on a hot streak scoring two goals and an assist in his final three games before the pause. 

Finnish Forward Mikko Koivu has played in 75.3 percent of the Wild's playoff games (55 of 73), sixth highest in NHL history for a player with one team behind goalies Pekka Rinne (84.7, Nashville Predators) and Martin Brodeur (82.6, New Jersey Devils), forwards Daniel Alfredsson (80.1, Ottawa Senators) and Ryan Getzlaf (77.2, Anaheim Ducks), and defenseman Chris Phillips (75.5, Senators). If the Wild wish to be successful in the play-offs they’ll need to be able to rely on arguably their franchises biggest asset in history. Since his ACL tear which saw him miss out on the majority of the 2018/19 season, Koivu’s career has been in question and should he opt to retire, we’re sure he’ll want to go out in style.

The Wild may also look to their AHL affiliates Ioha for depth scoring, Forward Sam Anas led the league in scoring with70 points in 63 games. AHL MVP Gerry Mayhew also has quite a lot to add to the roster as he led the league in goal scoring with 39 goals in 49 games.

Goaltending Predicament

 The biggest question looming over the Wild heading into their series against the Canucks is who will start between the sticks, Devan Dubnyk, Alex Stalock or Kaapo Kahkonen ? Dubnyk has started all 26 playoff games the Wild have played since they acquired him in a trade from the Arizona Coyotes on Jan. 15, 2015. But the 34-year-old was 12-15-2 with a 3.35 goals-against average this season, and his .890 save percentage was the lowest in the NHL among goalies who played at least 30 games and his .904 save % at 5 on 5 is well below league average, extremely poor considering the calibre of Minnesota’s defensive core. Alex Stalock stepped in during Dubnyk’s absence between November and December. The ST Paul native didn't look out of place in the #1 role, he went 20-11-4 with a 2.67 GAA and .910 save percentage in 38 games and started seven of the Wild's final eight games before the season was paused. There are no real holes in Stalock’s game, the real question is if he can get the motor up and running again after the season was paused. Kaapo Kahkonen on the other hand was named the AHL’s most outstanding goaltender after a successful AHL tenure with Iowa. The 23 year old played 34 games for Iowa carrying a .927 save % and a 2.07 goals against average. He also looked sharp in his first three NHL starts this past season, stopping 107 of 113 shots in those respective games. There’s a very good argument to be made that Kahkonen may be the most talented goaltender on the roster heading into the series, given his age and early career success. His lack of NHL experience is the real negative factor in the decision between the three. It is certainly a healthy issue to have three capable goaltenders to choose from heading into the post-season.

The Minnesota Wild are in for an interesting time during the return to play period and will look to return to the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.

Written by Ruairí