The Curious Case of Robin Lehner's Contract

The NHL is currently suspended, due to COVID-19, but training camps and practices are slowly returning which is a good sign. So as any bored hockey fan would let’s look into the future of the NHL. 

Background

Let’s have a look at the Golden Knight’s off-season. They have multiple expiring UFA and RFA contracts. Some notable ones are Chandler Stephenson, Nick Cousins, Deryk Engelland, and the question mark, Robin Lehner. Lehner has revived his career after battling alcohol addiction, ADHD, bipolar disorder, and mental health issues. He went to the Islanders in the 2018 offseason, and since then, has soared to top-10 goalie conversations, maybe even higher. After his tenure in Long Island where he had a Vezina-worthy season, he signed with Chicago after the Isles tried to low-ball him in free agency. He signed a one-year contract worth $5M to prove his worth to the NHL that he’s truly an all-star goalie. He did just that splitting time with Crawford, putting up a GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expectation) of 3.12, which was good for 13th in the league among goalies with 1,253 Fenwick Against, a GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) of 9.73 which was 9th in the league, and a dFSv% (Delta Fenwick Save%) of 0.22% that was 12th in the league. All of this behind Chicago’s league-worst defense is very impressive. He eventually got fewer and fewer games as Crawford played out of his mind that year, and when the trade deadline rolled around, he was shipped off to Vegas. 

His Time In Vegas (So Far)

Vegas was amazing this year, ranking top-3 in xGF% (Expected Goals For%) and CF% (Corsi For%). The analytics were showing they were a top 5 team in the league, but they also showed their one weakness, was goaltending. Yes, the same thing that got them to the Finals in 17-18 was now their weakness in 19-20. Marc-Andre Fleury had a pretty bad year, having a GSAx of -14.03, bottom 3 among starters, a GSAA of -8.26, which was 35th out of 41 goaltenders with an FA (Fenwick Against) of 1,253 or higher. His dFSv% was -0.74%, good for 37th out of 41 goaltenders. Malcolm Subban was not much better either. A GSAx of -6.94, a GSAA of -10.84, and a dFSv% of -0.94%. This was holding the Knights back from being cup contenders. The trade deadline rolled around, and they acquired Robin Lehner from the Hawks for Malcolm Subban, Slava Demin, and Pittsburgh’s 2020 2nd round pick. (This was a three-way trade involving Toronto and salary retention, minor players, and late picks, but the Lehner to Vegas deal is the main thing.) Vegas had fixed their weakness, goaltending, as Lehner played great in his 3 games with Vegas, a GSAx of 1.8, a GSAA of 2.01, and a dFSv% of 1.69%. During that period, Fleury continued his struggles, notching a below-average GSAx of -1.51, a GSAA of -2.01, and a dFSv% of -1.14%. Lehner was the better goaltender in that time, and it seemed as if he should be their starter for the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs until the season was suspended. Now we speculate what he might do after the 24-team playoffs are over. Will he re-sign? Will he go to another team? What kind of contract does he want? What kind of contract will he get?

Contract Projections and Comparables

Let’s take a look at Lehner’s past 3 seasons so far in the league. This season his analytical stat line is a GSAx of 4.92, GSAA of 12.14, and a dFSv% of 0.32%. Pretty good. Now for his 18-19 stat line, this is his best year by far. A GSAx of 18.9, a GSAA of 25.52, and a dFSv% of 1.02%! A Vezina-worthy season indeed. His 2017-18 season and his final year in Buffalo, was pretty bad. A GSAx of -16.66, a GSAA of -4.71, and a dFSv% of -0.78%. A contract comparable for him is Arizona’s Darcy Kuemper or the Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov. Kuemper signed a deal with an AAV of $4.5M and Varlamov signed a deal with an AAV of $5M. Kuemper has a CH% (Cap Hit %) of 5.52%, and Varlamov has a CH% of 6.14%. Due to money lost because of COVID-19, the cap for the NHL may not go up, if at all next season. Many players scheduled to hit free agency are expected to be forced to take shorter-term contracts due to the uncertainty of the cap and how it will affect teams, especially teams in cap crunches like Tampa. HBAnalytic’s (Twitter: @hbanalytics) goalie card visual shows Lehner having a market value of around $4.5M based on this season. So using these comparables and HBAnalytic’s market value model, I conclude Lehner could get a 1 or 2-year deal worth an AAV of around $5.5M. The reasoning behind this is the comparables presented (Kuemper and Varlamov), HBAnalytic’s market value model, and the circumstances surrounding the NHL with the pandemic going on. Lehner won’t be able to get that long-term deal he wants, because GM’s have no certainty of what the cap will look like in the future, and the money is because of his comparables and such. Lehner has hinted at a potential return to Vegas as he teased new images of a potential set of pads he would wear for the Knights if he were to re-sign. Vegas would need to make cap space to bring him back, which would most likely require trading Paul Stastny and his $6.5M contract, and some letting go of free agents, like Deryk Engelland. If the Knights do keep him around, it will be huge for them as they have a 1A-1B tandem with Lehner and Fleury, so if one of them slumps, the other can come in and play some good hockey, and would also make both of them work harder to get more starts and games played.

By: Victor Beraja